Stephan Livera, a respected host of his eponymous podcast and head of education at Swan Bitcoin, has recently presented predictions for the future development of Bitcoin to the crypto community. This week, Bitcoin experienced a rally that pushed its price up to $35,000, marking its highest level since May 2022.
Given the favorable climate surrounding a possible spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval and institutional acceptance, Livera believes that this surge is just the precursor to a much larger bull run.
The Potential Catalyst: A Spot Bitcoin ETF
According to Livera, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could fundamentally change the valuation of Bitcoin. Speaking with Michelle Makori, the main anchor and editor-in-chief of Kitco News, at the Pacific Bitcoin Festival, Livera emphasized the potential repercussions of such approval.
While rumors suggest that ETF approval may be in sight by the end of this year, Livera disagrees with this assessment. He believes that this groundbreaking event will likely occur in 2024. Livera, the head of education at Swan Bitcoin, remarked:
“Although many experts predict [a spot Bitcoin ETF] will come in three to six months, I don’t think it will happen this year. Next year is the more likely scenario…in the first or second quarter of 2024, which would coincide with the halving cycle expected in April.”
Particularly, a significant event like the halving cycle will influence the market dynamics of Bitcoin. Historically, this event, which halves the reward for miners adding new blocks to the Bitcoin blockchain, has led to price shifts.
In the upcoming cycle, the block reward will be set at 3,125 BTC. According to Livera, this, combined with the potential approval of a spot ETF, could trigger increased interest and an influx of investments into Bitcoin.
Projected Highs and Lows: The BTC Landscape
Livera provides a roadmap of Bitcoin’s possible price development. The head of education at Swan Bitcoin predicts a stabilization around the $30,000 mark in the near future, with a possible escalation towards $40,000 as we approach the halving next year.
But the real fireworks could start after the halving and usher in a wild bull run. Livera delved into historical trends and shared:
“Historically, we’ve seen a slight uptick around the halving, and then a slight sell-off. After six to twelve months, the really crazy bull run happens, and at that point, you get 10 or 20 times the price of Bitcoin.”
This extrapolation by Livera culminates in a remarkable forecast for the end of 2024 – a bold surge that, according to the expert, may reach around $500,000 by 2025 or early 2026.
However, this surge could be accompanied by a steep decline. Livera draws parallels to gold and believes that Bitcoin may potentially mimic its valuation range. Livera added, emphasizing the volatility of the crypto domain:
“It is quite possible that Bitcoin will come close to gold, and that would mean a price in the range of $500,000. As is customary in this industry, we will likely reach this value as a peak, followed by an 80% decline. So it could rise to $500,000 and then crash to $100,000.”
The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
Selected Image by Unsplash, Chart by TradingView
