Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has warned in a LinkedIn post that the United States and China are “on the brink of war” and are “beyond the ability to talk”. He added that their relations “are getting so bad” that US-China trade could collapse. Dalio, who has visited China for almost four decades, shared his perspectives from his recent 13-day trips to China, as well as meetings with Chinese citizens, experts on China residing outside the country, and policymakers in other countries, including the US. The billionaire noted that the next 18 months “will be a very risky period.”
Dalio stressed that the US and China are very close to having a sanctions war and/or military war. He clarified, “I want to emphasize that by saying that they are on the brink, I don’t mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink. I mean to say that they are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways — like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger.”
The next 18 months will be very risky for China and the US, warns Dalio. He opined that “The hawkish political influences in the United States will exert more pressure on the relationship over the next 18 months because of the emergence of the 2024 election season. That will be a very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war.” If US-China relations continue to deteriorate, he cautioned that “anti-China sentiment could make doing business with China like doing business with Russia, which would lead US-China trade to collapse.”
In another development this week, the US Department of Defense has revealed that it is focused on potential conflict with China. According to the deputy secretary of defense, “We have a clear strategy that’s focused on China… Our focus is making sure that the People’s Republic of China leadership wakes up every day and says, ‘Today is not the day to undertake aggression that threatens US interests’… That’s our focus today, in 2027, and in 2035 and 2045.”
