Henrik Zeberg, a prominent macroeconomist, has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets are preparing for a “monster” trend that is still in its infancy. Zeberg’s predictions are based on the BTC/SPX ratio, an indicator that compares the performance of Bitcoin with the S&P 500 index.
Despite recent fluctuations and concerns about the sustainability of the cryptocurrency market, Zeberg remains optimistic about BTC. According to the analyst, the BTC/SPX ratio provides strong evidence that the Bitcoin uptrend is “just getting started.” Based on price movements, the current decline in September may provide traders with opportunities to accumulate.
The BTC/SPX ratio is an indicator that evaluates the relative performance of Bitcoin and the stock market. It is derived by dividing the spot prices of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index. When it rises, as it currently is, it suggests that Bitcoin is outperforming the stock market. Conversely, a declining ratio indicates that Bitcoin is underperforming, and investing in stocks may yield better returns than holding BTC.
According to a chart shared on October 3rd, Zeberg triggered a “bullish” signal in February 2023, which preceded a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. By July 2023, Bitcoin had risen to around $32,000. Although there has been a cooling-off period since then, the trend of Bitcoin remains above the February highs of around $25,200, confirming the upward trend.
Between April 2019 and May 2021, when a similar bullish signal was printed, BTC increased sixfold, while the S&P 500 saw a more modest increase of 41%. Zeberg’s assessment, based on the BTC/SPX ratio, suggests that Bitcoin and other risk assets could experience strong gains in the coming months.
Speculating whether Bitcoin will reach $200,000 during this bull market can only be done with uncertainty. Considering the BTC/SPX ratio, the indicator is not reliable in accurately capturing market peaks or lows.
For example, the last bear signal occurred in May 2021, months before Bitcoin reached its peak in November 2021 and subsequently fell. Although the bullish signal was recorded in early February 2023, it is unclear whether there will be another downtrend before prices rise or if the bears will continue to drive the coin’s price back to the lows of 2022.
If buyers take control and the BTC/SPX ratio indicator is correct, it is impossible to determine how much BTC will rise at current prices. If we consider the previous bull run, BTC could increase sixfold. In this case, BTC could recover and surpass the $200,000 mark in this bull cycle.
It is important to note that these predictions are based on analysis and indicators, and the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can impact its performance. Investors should conduct thorough research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
